Evaluating Resilience of the Swiss Power Grid
A recent study by researchers from ETH Zurich and ZHAW Winterthur is exploring potential frameworks for the future Swiss energy landscape, particularly focused on ensuring it can handle significant drops in gas and electricity imports. Their work aims to enrich ongoing discussions regarding Switzerland’s energy supply security.
Vision for a CO2-Neutral Energy Supply by 2050
The Climate and Innovation Act sets an ambitious target for Switzerland: achieving a CO2-neutral energy system by 2050. Anticipated increases in electricity demands driven by transportation electrification and heating needs are projected to be met primarily via hydropower, solar, wind sources, alongside some imports. Notably, existing nuclear facilities are expected to cease operations prior to this deadline.
The Significance of Import Reliability
This raises essential questions about how much reliance is appropriate on external nations for steady energy supplies—especially after disrupted Russian gas shipments raised concerns during the previous two winters about possible shortages of both gas and electricity.
Modeling Future Energy Challenges
In their innovative study, researchers modeled various scenarios that test different stress levels on what a climate-neutral energy framework would need to look like in 2050. Their goal is to discern how best to structure this system capable of absorbing severe limitations in international power transactions efficiently while maintaining sustainability and reliability.
“The economic viability of certain technologies will hinge on the frequency and severity with which import options decline,” remarks Ali Darudi, an energy researcher at ZHAW Winterthur involved in the project. The model serves as a foundation for informed dialogue surrounding Switzerland’s supply stability.
A Deep Dive into Import Shock Simulations
The research team developed their forecasts based on projections from national authorities, estimating an annual requirement reaching approximately 76 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2050. They strategically established their baseline scenario reflecting minimal dependency on foreign supplies while prioritizing cost-effectiveness: under this model, foreign sources provide around 45% along with hydropower meeting part of demand; photovoltaic systems and wind generate most remaining output.
This design was then subjected to varying degrees of shocks—studying conditions where electric imports could drop dramatically over one year alongside considerations regarding gas import availability during these scenarios.
Diverse Technological Approaches Against Import Losses
To effectively counteract these import fluctuations without sacrificing availability or incurring excessive costs, researchers are experimenting with diverse technology combinations—including reserve power systems using gas or liquid fuels alongside enhanced solar installations, wind farms as well as various storage solutions combined with potential new nuclear capacities.
Potential System Robustness Under Extreme Conditions
The models indicate that such an arrangement could endure up to a staggering 70% decrease in available cross-border electrical capacity without necessitating further actions beyond existing measures. Key contributions come from Switzerland’s water reserves; “Our reservoirs have nearly nine terawatt hours worth of capacity which can mitigate shortfalls,” states Jonas Savelsberg from ETH Zurich’s Energy Science Center.”
Evolving Investment Strategies Based On Frequency Of Shock Events
If declines surpassing this threshold occur regularly (e.g., higher than a once-in-five years basis), investment-focused strategies become imperative targeting high-capacity yet economical technologies—this includes using renewable resources even if they involve greater up-front costs but promise lower operational expenses long-term through efficient output processes.
Liquid Fuel Power Technologies:
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Natural Gas Power Plants: A Critical Component of Switzerland’s Energy Landscape
The Role of Gas Imports in Electricity Generation
In scenarios where electricity imports are disrupted, particularly during unexpected crises, gas-fired power plants play a vital role in maintaining energy stability. When gas can be imported from external sources, these facilities act as crucial backup systems to compensate for the decreased supply of electricity from abroad. However, capturing and filtering the resultant CO2 emissions created by these power plants remains a costly challenge.
“Gas imports are essential for creating a resilient energy framework within Switzerland,” remarks Savelsberg. With the availability of imported gas, nuclear power stations become less economically viable for addressing energy shortfalls. “The presence of gas diminishes financial motivations to invest in new nuclear facilities,” adds the ETH scholar.
Nuclear Energy and Hydrogen’s Limited Applications
According to researchers’ models, establishing new nuclear reactors would only be financially sensible under extreme conditions—a complete halt in electricity imports every two years without the option for gas imports. “In this highly unlikely situation, only then could the steep capital costs associated with new nuclear plants be justified by their comparatively low operational expenses,” explains Darudi from ZHAW.
This analysis is based on anticipated investment expenses approximating EUR 10,000 per kilowatt (kW), which aligns with numerous European studies evaluating similar projects. Even when considering scenarios where construction costs may be lower than projected, scientists reached compatible conclusions.
Regarding sustainable hydrogen production, its utilization as an alternative energy source is limited to rare occurrences where both electric and gas import channels are entirely shut down every two to ten years. Even under such circumstances, hydrogen generation would contribute merely 2.5 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually—representing around 3% of Swiss demand—making it an economically unfeasible choice when domestic gas supplies exist due to its high production costs.
Validity and Robustness of Research Findings
Research findings were further validated through modeling alternative energy systems that comply with current legislation promoting renewable sources outlined by Switzerland’s Federal Act on Secure Electricity Supply. In this revised model scenario—where approximately 60% of electricity needs are fulfilled through photovoltaic technology—the remainder comes mainly from hydropower combined with wind farms; as a result:
Electricity imported from neighboring countries plays a diminished role; thus Switzerland wouldn’t just meet its demands but could potentially export as much power as it receives year-round.
In both evaluative frameworks employed by researchers, they consistently observed that reserve generation capabilities tied to either natural or liquid fuels remain optimal solutions for responding effectively during infrequent disruptions.
Further Insights
For additional details see:
- Thrive Under Sunshine: Economic Models Addressing Power Investments Amidst Political Turmoil – Working Paper published by ZBW – Leibniz Information Center for Economics Read here
Reference Information
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Stress tests conducted regarding the Swiss electrical framework (2025 January 14), retrieved January 14th,
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