Is Nigeria’s network coverage ready for the 2023 elections?

Last month, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s voters’ accreditation instrument, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), proved over-voting in the Osun state gubernatorial election held in July final yr.

Notwithstanding the elevated confidence in the BVAS that ensued after its function in the  Osun election petition tribunal, it begs the query of Nigeria’s readiness for the election; Is the nation’s web infrastructure geared up to deal with the information transmission wants of such a momentous occasion?

In the tribunal which revealed overvoting in the Osun governorship election, other than INEC’s closing report, there have been two different studies from the opposing events—Ademola Adeleke and Gboyega Oyetola. One had sourced the report from the BVAS machines, and the different obtained a report from the INEC server. They had been each from the similar election, however the outcomes had been totally different, and it seems to be as a result of not all the information in the BVAS units was transmitted to the INEC server earlier than and after the outcomes had been introduced. It was INEC who offered a synchronised report—a report the place all the information in the BVAS had been transmitted to the server.

The INEC chairman has repeatedly stated that the BVAS machine doesn’t want the web to confirm voters, nevertheless, it wants the web for end result transmission—to add photographs of the Polling Unit end result type (Form EC8A), from polling items to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) in real-time and to the INEC central server for collation. If the polling centres do not need enough web connectivity, there might be inconsistencies in the numbers, corresponding to what occurred in the Osun elections. 

Bad connectivity threatens the election’s credibility

During the Osun State governorship election, which was discovered tampered with by over-voting, irregularities had been reported, by ICIR, at Polling Unit 009, Sagba/Abogunde Ward 2. The INEC officers, as a substitute of importing the outcomes to the IReV on the spot as beforehand introduced, took the BVAS machines with them, citing the want to take action at the collation centre. This interference with the transmission course of might result in a scenario just like that of the Osun elections, the place the outcomes had been overturned months after the truth. Furthermore, transferring the BVAS machines looking for a steady network places them vulnerable to theft and tampering, similar to poll packing containers have been in previous elections.

These potentialities beg the query of web penetration throughout the polling items. As of 2022, Nigeria had practically 84 million web customers, translating to web penetration of about 38%. There are greater than 150 million Internet service subscribers in Nigeria, based on the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC),  with broadband penetration standing at 44.65%. This implies {that a} bigger a part of Nigeria doesn’t have satisfactory web entry.

Even in areas which have 3G network coverage, the chance of network outage taking place is a supply of concern to fret about. As telecommunication outages are sometimes as widespread as electrical energy outages in Nigeria.

Slow web is costing the nation hundreds of thousands of {dollars}, will it value Nigeria the credibility of the election too? Does INEC have contingencies for this, or would Nigerians have to attend half a yr to find that the mistaken winner was declared?

Internet shutdown

Another attainable situation to contemplate is what is going to occur if there’s a partial or complete web shutdown in Nigeria. 

In January 2021, the Ugandan authorities ordered an web shutdown on the eve of the presidential election. Later that very same yr, there have been practically a dozen web shutdowns throughout the continent. There had been additionally two in Nigeria; Zamfara and Kaduna, however in contrast to the others, they weren’t election-related.  The governors of each states stated they shut down the telecommunications network to discourage bandits from speaking warnings about the location of presidency troops with each other.

International and native civic organisations have expressed considerations a couple of attainable web shutdown throughout the upcoming election. Earlier this month, a coalition of over 300 organisations from 105 nations working to finish web shutdowns, the #MaintainItOn Coalition requested Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari, “to ensure that the internet, social media platforms, and all other communication channels remain free, open, secure, inclusive, and accessible prior to, during, and after the general election.”

Not solely does INEC want web connectivity to transmit outcomes, however the voting public additionally wants it for continued entry to data and communication throughout the interval. A shutdown will intrude with the rights to freedom of expression and meeting, and entry to data, blocking channels of communication for voters, journalists, election observers, and all others concerned.

In response to such considerations, the NCC has affirmed that “All users of telecommunications and banking services utilising network facilities are assured of continued optimal service delivery before, during, and after the general elections in Nigeria.”

Such assurances have been made in a number of African nations like Cameroon proper earlier than the authorities shut down the web. Given the authoritarian nature of African democracies, it stays a chance for the state or federal authorities to close down telecommunication networks throughout or after the elections.

Considering that Nigeria is very inclined to election violence and reportedly illiberal of civil dissent-like protests, is it actually unlikely for the authorities to resort to a shutdown citing safety causes? All it takes is for the authorities to ask tier-one web service suppliers like MTN, Glo, Main One, and Airtel to close down their connections by disconnecting their servers from authorised information alternate factors inside the nation. 

In a number of interviews, INEC has reassured Nigerians that the BVAS machine has been up to date to keep away from failures that occurred in previous governorship elections and that the electoral personnel are nicely educated, however it’s but to say a lot about its plans for making certain Nigeria’s gradual, unreliable web infrastructure doesn’t intrude with the transmission of election outcomes and the total legitimacy of the course of.

INEC hasn’t responded to TechCabal’s requests for feedback on the topic.