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Latest Update: March 18, 2025, at 3:19 AM
The Future of the U.S. Automotive Industry Under President Trump’s Re-election
President Donald J. Trump’s re-election has sparked significant speculation regarding the trajectory of the automotive sector in America and the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs). Through various executive actions, he has signaled plans to roll back federal regulations that aim to lower greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles. Additionally, he intends to eliminate financial incentives for purchasing EVs and potentially suspend or modify federal funding initiatives aimed at enhancing EV charging networks.
Analyzing Economic Ramifications of Policy Shifts
The REPEAT Project has recently put forward updated scenarios to evaluate how these prospective alterations in energy and climate policies could affect the vehicle marketplace in the United States. This includes a detailed examination of consequences for domestic production within the EV sector and battery manufacturing.
Projected Outcomes if Clean Vehicle Initiatives Are Abolished
- If EPA regulations on vehicle emissions are revoked along with tax credits for clean vehicles:
- Sales projections for battery electric vehicles may witness a decline by approximately 30% by 2027, expanding to 40% by 2030, compared to a scenario where current policy frameworks persist.
- The portion of battery electric vehicles among new light vehicle sales could decrease from nearly 18% down to about 13% in 2026, further plunging from 40% to just around %24 by .
- Cumulatively speaking, there could be up to 8.3 million fewer EVs and plug-in hybrids operating on American roads come 2030.
- The anticipated construction projects related to U.S.-based electric vehicle assembly might face fatal delays or stoppages; alongside this possibility is also an alarming risk that half of existing assembly facilities could shut down completely.
- An estimated 29%-72% of current battery cell production capabilities projected online by late 2025 may become surplus due to decreased automotive needs—further endangering upcoming planned facilities as well.
- A knock-on effect would likely extend upstream towards suppliers in materials and components pivotal for both EV production as well as battery manufacturing processes but remains difficult yet quantifiable currently.
You can access an extensive PDF analysis through this link.
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